The Way This Unusual Season Broke the Typical Coach of the Year Mold.

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still